REBOUNDED NICELY FROM THE VERY DISAPPOINTING COLLEGE CARD ON SATURDAY WITH A NICE SUNDAY. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME SWALLOWING NOTRE DAMES LAST MINUTE SPREAD GIVE AWAY, BUT WE WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THOSE GAMES SOON. JUST AN FYI, I ACTUALLY BET ALL THE GAMES ON MY CARD, SO OFTEN TIMES I WILL NOT RLEASE A SELECTION JUST TO GIVE ONE OUT, AS I AM NOT INTERESTED IN LOSING EITHER LOSING THE MONEY OF THOSE WHO FOLLOW THESE PLAYS, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MY OWN MONEY. AS SUCH, IF THERE ARE ONLY A FEW GAMES THAT I LIKE ON A GIVEN WEEKEND THEN THOSE WILL BE THE ONLY PLAYS I WILL GIVE OUT. THAT BEING SAID THESE ARE THE GAMES THAT I HAVE PLAYED ALREADY! AS ALWAYS I PLAY ALL GAMES AT $100/UNIT SO ADJUST THE RATING ACCORDING TO HOW YOU BET. GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY!
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 9-10 47.6% (-3.60) -$360
Season Record: NFL 5-2 71.4% (+4.70) +$470
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(5) HAWAII +21 CONFIRMED
(3) RUTGERS -6
(2) SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA UNDER 40.5
(2) UAB -10.5
(1) PURDUE PICK'EM ADDED
(1) ARIZONA +11.5 ADDED
(1) LOUISVILLE +3
(1) DUKE -11
(1) MICHIGAN -9.5 ADDED
(1) BOISE STATE -21 Downgraded
*OPINION PLAYS: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14; UTEP +19.5; TEXAS -13.5; MEMPHIS +5
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NFL FOOTBALL:
(1) MIAMI -3
(1) CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE UNDER 41
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DETAILED WRITEUPS NCAA FOOTBALL
HAWAII (1 - 0) at USC (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 4:00 PM
139 HAWAII 59
140 USC -21
Detailed Analysis
Coach June Jones Hawaii Rainbows are not going to be welcome visitors for the Trojans this week. Hawaii's all-everything passer, Timmy Chang, returns, along with an offense that averaged 36 points per game last year. To go with this, Jones has what he says is his best defense ever. The defensive line is strong and it will have to be vs. USC and the secondary is experienced. Recently jones has stated; "this is the game we want most this year," "we will be ready for anything they [USC] will do offensively. Last year this team won at Fresno, beat Cincinnati and lost by five to Alabama. Forget the last time Hawaii lined up against the Trojans, the Rainbow Warriors were decapitated 62-7. That was in 1999, in June Jones’s first game as the Hawaii head coach. Jones would love to beat Southern Cal but lets not kid ourselves here, his team is not good enough for an outright win, and since our favorite team is the spread...that's all we should be worried about. Meanwhile, Hawaii goes into the game with 3 of its starting 4 WRs hurting. As for injuries, Soph slot receiver Nate Ilaoa (coach June Jones says the best receiver) is out with a partially-torn ACL. Jr. SB Chad Owens (ankle) and leading WR Jeremiah Cockerhan (slightly sprained knee) have been upgraded to probable and are now expected to play. Those three combined for 14 recs. For 272 yds in the team’s season-opening 40-17 victory over Appalachian State. Because of their talent, Jones has decided to go with 3 redshirt or true freshmen at the team’s 3 open OL positions. Jones says the three all have NFL potential.
Given that USC’s record as a non-conference home favorite of -12 or more is an anemic 1-12 ATS, the Rainbows may have a chance to sneak in under the generous spread. The Trojans failed to cover a big number last week against visiting BYU, jumping out to a 21-0 lead then letting up a bit before winning 35-18 as 20 point chalk. This week they are again favored by 3 touchdowns. Will they cover? They do have two advantages not present last Saturday. One, the Cougars had a tough game under their collective belts (the Georgia Tech win) while Hawaii has only played Appalachian St. And two, the Rainbows 1# quarterback, Tommy Chang, missed that contest with a one-game suspension. Additionally, this will be the second straight foe the Trojans will have faced that owns a one dimensional offense...all aerial. USC signal caller Matt Leinart showed last week that he's talented BUT somewhat inexperienced. He went 19 of 34 for 235 yards and 3 td's vs. BYU, BUT he was also intercepted 3 times! Trojans handled BYU’s passing game like they knew what was coming and really, they did, because their offensive coordinator built the BYU system. USC has lost starting CB and PR Kevin Arbet for the rest of the season with a foot fracture. Arbet missed all of LY with the same injury. He will likely be replaced by juco and former BC starter Will Pool (1 int. last week). The Trojans have two other backup Cbs with starting experience. Trojans’ blue-chip true frosh starting S Darnell Bing, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the season opener, aggravated the injury last week, has missed much of practice this week to rest it, and is questionable. Hawaii, led by Timmy Chang, will be a tougher test, and the ‘Bows have had an extra week to prepare. Hawaii's advantage here...they're 8-1 ATS as non-conference dogs. USC will score a bunch, but Hawaii has the offense to hang around the number. Rested Rainbows are always a challenge.
Projected Score: USC 38, Hawaii 24
PLAY 5* UNITS ON HAWAII +21
RUTGERS (1 - 1) at ARMY (0 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
125 RUTGERS -6.5
126 ARMY
Detailed Analysis
This game perhaps will win the award as one of the least watchable games of the year...but does that mean I can't bet on it? The Rutgers Scarlet Knights try to double last season's win total on Saturday when they head to West Point to take on the Army Black Knights in non-conference action from Michie Stadium. The Scarlet Knights have already equaled last year's win total of one, with an opening-day victory over Buffalo, 24-10. The win snapped the Scarlet Knights' nine-game losing streak dating back to last season. However, the victory was short lived as Rutgers was defeated by Michigan State, 44-28 last Saturday. With a 1-1 mark on the season, the Scarlet Knights shouldn't have trouble building on their 1-11 mark from a year ago. As for Army, it also finished last season 1-11 and did not get off to a good start this year either. In their season opener against Connecticut, the Black Knights were manhandled, 48-21. It was the third consecutive loss for Army dating back to a season ago. The Black Knights will be playing a school-record 13 games this season, which includes a tough stretch of Conference USA contests.
Rutgers gained only 330 yards of total offense against Michigan State, but was still able to produce 21 points. The offense moved the ball through the air effectively, gaining 266 yards, but struggled on the ground with just 64 yards. Ryan Hart had a respectable day, completing 14-of-31 pass attempts for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has now completed 56.5 percent of his passes for nearly 500 yards and three touchdowns through the first two games of the season. Harts' favorite target, Shawn Tucker, hauled in five balls for 118 yards and a score against Michigan State. Tucker had only three receptions for 44 yards in the season opener against Buffalo. Brian Leonard led the rushing attack with 31 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Justin Hairston didn't fare much better either, gaining only 22 yards on 13 totes. Hairston had 88 yards and a score last week versus Buffalo. Overall, the Rutgers' offense was last in the nation last season so scoring more than 21 points in the first two games of the season is definitely a promising sign. Defensively, Rutgers was torched for 485 yards by MSU, including 351 yards via the pass. However, the defense did manage to record three sacks while also picking off two passes. Jarvis Johnson led the unit with 10 tackles in addition to registering a sack. He now has 14 stops on the year. Bryan Durango made seven tackles, while David Harley came up with five. Brandon Haw accounted for four tackles and also picked off a pass which he returned 61 yards for a touchdown. Willie Beckford had a solid all-around game with four tackles, a sack and an interceptions. Nate Jones made only four tackles after recording nine in the season opener against Buffalo. Alfre Peterson and Raheem Orr each registered a sack in the losing cause. Orr leads the team on the season with 2.5 sacks. The Scarlet Knights had trouble slowing down Michigan State's passing game, but did a decent job overall.
Army could only muster 244 total yards of offense in its setback to UConn. The offense gained only 44 yards on the ground, while throwing for a respectable 200 yards. The Black Knights' biggest setback in the game came on third downs, where they converted just 8-of-22 opportunities. Play caller Zac Dahman completed 17-of-29 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns, but was also picked off once. He was replaced by Reggie Nevels, who completed just 9-of-21 pass attempts for 57 yards. On the receiving end was Aaron Alexander, who caught five passes for 68 yards and a score. As for the running attack, it was led by Carlton Jones and his 48 yards on 15 carries. Seth Gulsby was a nice change of pace with eight carries for 32 yards. The offense was aided by the special teams, which saw Ray Stith return a 63-yard punt for a score. Overall, the Army offense stumbled a bit, not scoring in the first half, but did appear more organized in the second. On the defensive side of the ball, Army permitted 481 total yards, including 317 through the air. The unit did a respectable job on third downs, holding UConn to just 3-of-11 on its conversion attempts, but failed to record a sack. The defense also came up with only two turnovers, both on interceptions. Delente Brewer led the charge with seven tackles and one interception. He picked off two passes last season to lead the team, displaying his ability to blanket opposing pass catchers. Jonathan Lewis finished second on the team with six tackles, while Brian Hill made five and half stops. Chuck Wilke came up with the team's second interception to go with his two stops. The bottom line is the Army defense played poorly and things will only get harder as the season goes on.
So why have I chosen this game? Consider this, Rutgers is returning an experienced squad this year and they have been able to move the ball consistently in their previous two outings (see above), putting up 24 points at Michigan State last week. They have a good young QB in sophomore Ryan Hart. Hart played well in a 24-10 victory over Buffalo, and they ran for 181 yards rushing, which means the offense should be able to move the ball against a pitiful Army 'D'. On the other side of the ball Army was manhandled in a CUSA game at Cincinnati. They only managed 44 yards on 37 carries and looked totally out of sync. To put icing on the cake, Army got bad news this week with the loss of QB Reggie Nevels, and Army's starting FS, playmaker Lucius Weaver, is suspended for this contest. With the loss of Weaver, Rutgers well balanced offense which has been especially effective over the top, will be able to take advantage of Weaver's absence. This years Rutgers squad is a much better team improved team (albiet still terrible when compaired with the rest of the league), while Army will be hard pressed to match last years 1 win total. Rutgers beat Army 44-0 last season and are 2-0 last 2 ATS. All signs point to another easy win. This one could get ugly...DD Road cover.
Projected Score: Rutgers 36, Army 21
PLAY 3* UNITS ON RUTGERS -6
S CAROLINA (2 - 0) at GEORGIA (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
127 S CAROLINA 40.5
128 GEORGIA -14
Detailed Analysis
Quarterback David Greene is having trouble getting Georgia's offense into the end zone. The eighth-ranked Bulldogs need him to step up his performance Saturday as they attempt to end their touchdown drought against rival South Carolina in the Southeastern Conference opener for both teams. Georgia has driven inside the 20-yard line 10 times in the first two games this season, but has just four touchdowns. "It's been frustrating," Greene said. "It's not like we've been terrible. We just haven't had a whole lot of execution." Greene completed 73 percent of his passes (33-of-45) for 470 yards in victories over Clemson and Middle Tennessee State, but he's passed for only one touchdown. "I've been decent," he said. "Not terrible, but not great either. Obviously, if you're not scoring touchdowns, you're not getting the job done as a quarterback." Greene threw for 267 yards in a sloppy 29-10 victory over Middle Tennessee on Saturday. Wide receiver Fred Gibson pulled his hamstring in the game and may miss Saturday's game against the Gamecocks. "You never know how quickly a guy can recover from that," Richt said of his top receiver.
South Carolina has won two of the last three in the series. Only Florida, which has taken three straight from the Bulldogs, has fared as well in recent years. In 2000, the Gamecocks were an overwhelming underdog at home. Yet, Bulldog star Quincy Carter threw five interceptions and South Carolina stunned the Bulldogs 21-10. The next season at Georgia, the Gamecocks again pulled off the surprise, winning 14-9 for only their sixth victory in 29 games in Athens. Last year's contest also came down to the wire, with Georgia pulling out a 13-7 win in a game full of missed opportunities for South Carolina. Andrew Pinnock fumbled twice near Georgia's goal line, the last coming in the game's final minutes. The Bulldogs' lone touchdown came on an incredible end zone interception and return by defender David Pollack.
"We've not even scored a touchdown against them since I've been here," Georgia coach Mark Richt said. That's right coach, Georgia (2-0) has gone two straight years without an offensive touchdown against the 25th-ranked Gamecocks (2-0). At least the Bulldogs don't have to contend with Charlie Strong, the former Gamecocks defensive coordinator who moved to Florida this season. South Carolina has shifted from the unorthodox 3-5-3 alignment that Strong favored to a more conventional 4-3 under new coordinator Chris Cosh. "They are very different scheme-wise," Richt said. "They look very much like our defensive scheme. The blitzes are identical. The coverage is identical."
Despite its fast start, South Carolina coach Lou Holtz doesn't want his players to become overconfident heading into Saturday's showdown. "We're not laboring under any misconceptions that we think we're an excellent football team," Holtz said Monday. The Gamecocks showed promise by upsetting then-No. 15 Virginia 31-7 Saturday, a win that resulted in their rise to No. 25 in this week's rankings. Quarterback Dondrial Pinkins connected with Troy Williamson on a record-setting 99-yard touchdown play to set the tone for South Carolina.
This is the 12th time that Georgia and South Carolina meet to open an SEC season. The Bulldogs have won seven of those meetings. Georgia leads the overall series 40-13-2, including 23-6 in Athens and 18-5 in Sanford Stadium. He may look it, but, Lou Holtz certainly is not dead yet. After laying an egg in the first week, "Sweet" Lou rallied the troops and stomped an injured Virginia in Charlottesville, 31-7. This week will also require every bit of Lou's guile as the Gamecocks walk in between the Hedges. Let the "poor mouthing" begin! Georgia had a very pedestrian effort last week against Middle Tennessee State, 29-10. However, the Bulldogs did lose WR Fred Gibson to a hamstring and the latest report says he will not play here. This injury could impact what has become a traditionally low scoring affair. The last five years, this game has gone UNDER the total five consecutive times. Neither team has averaged 15 points in the past 5 years in this contest. Defense will be the story again this year as South Carolina's new 4-3 setup has been very strong so far, only allowing one touchdown to this point. Georgia has not been a slouch either, shutting out Clemson in the first week, 30-0. Georgia is 12-2 SU, but only 3-8-2 ATS at home in the past three years under the helm of Mark Richt. Despite their wonderful performance last week, South Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and 1-3 ATS against Georgia in the last 4 games. As they say in the South, "Tradition is all we have left!" Tradition (and defense) is what to expect in this clash.
Projected Score: Georgia 21, So Carolina 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA UNDER 40.5
TROY ST (0 - 2) at UAB (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 7:00 PM
181 TROY ST
182 UAB -10.5
Detailed Analysis
Troy State (0-2) is on a brutal road trip, having gotten blasted at Kansas State and at Minnesota. The Trojans young offensive line features 3 new starters. In their previous two outings against K-State and Minnesota the Trojans were outscored by a 12 - 89 point margin. Now they travel to UAB, so you have to wonder how beat up and tired this traveling road show is. Alabama-Birmingham has an experienced offense led by sophomore QB Darrell Hackney and junior WR Roddy White. UAB topped Baylor 24-19 in the opener, then lost a tough 17-12 game at home to Conference USA rival Southern Miss last week. But the Blazers beat themselves last week against Southern Mississippi. They had 4 TO's in the contest and were able to move the ball well most of the day...so I don't think they'll have much trouble going downfield against Troy St. UAB has a prolific offense with playmakers at the skill positions. The Blazers star QB is a little knicked up, but he's had a few extra days to heal (last played on Thursday night) and is expected to start on Saturday.Finally, UAB's new defensive coordinator is Wayne Bolt, who ran Troy State's defense for the last 12 seasons. UAB's 'D' is much improved because of him this fall and even with Bolt, UAB beat a much better Troy team 27-26 last season. Blazers are an experienced team motivated by a home loss going against a tired inexperienced team. This game has the makings of a blowout!
Projected Score: UAB 37, Troy State 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON UAB -10.5
LOUISVILLE (1 - 0) at SYRACUSE (1 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 1:30 PM
105 LOUISVILLE
106 SYRACUSE -3
Detailed Analysis
The Louisville Cardinals of Conference USA travel to the Carrier Dome for Saturday's matchup with the Syracuse Orangemen of the Big East. Louisville should be well rested heading into this tilt, as it has not played since opening its season with an impressive 40-24 victory over intrastate rival Kentucky on August 31st. After this tilt, the Cardinals will play a pair of non-conference home games against UTEP and Temple before beginning their league schedule on October 4th against South Florida. Bobby Petrino is in the first year of his second term with the Louisville program, this time as HC instead of offensive coordinator. As for Syracuse, it enters this game riding a wave of emotion after a thrilling 49-47 victory over North Carolina in three overtimes. That victory, which took place on the road, will now be followed by three straight non-league games at home before the start of Big East play. Unlike Petrino who is in his first year as head coach as mentioned, the Orangemen's Paul Pasqualoni is in his 12th season as leader of the program. Syracuse will attempt to remain perfect against Louisville on Saturday, as the Orangemen have won all three previous matchups with the Cardinals.
Coach Petrino served as Louisville's offensive coordinator during the 1998 season when the team led the nation in scoring and total offense. During that campaign, Petrino's unit set program records for scoring, scoring average, touchdowns, passing touchdowns and total yards. Considering that the Cardinals posted 40 points against a solid Kentucky team in this season's opener, it is apparent that the offense is once again in good hands. Louisville racked up an impressive total of 420 total yards in that contest and came away with points in each of its four trips to the red zone. The running attack accounted for 240 yards on 44 attempts, and Eric Shelton led the way with 151 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Lionel Gates proved to be a force as well, as he ran for 75 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries. While quarterback Stefan LeFors did not post huge numbers, his 14-of-23 effort for 180 yards and one score provided solid compliment to the effective ground attack. Louisville turned the ball over just once in the clash and allowed only one sack, solid numbers that clearly contributed to the win. Broderick Clark was the team's top receiver in week one, as he finished with six grabs for 94 yards.
While Petrino is known as an offensive coach, he is certainly not one to neglect his defense. Although the Cardinals did surrender 24 points to Kentucky, they managed to hold the Wildcats scoreless in the fourth quarter to preserve the victory. Considering that Kentucky is one of the nation's more explosive offensive teams, Louisville should feel good about its defensive performance overall. The Cardinals were tremendous against the run, allowing only 108 yards on 36 attempts. Even against Jared Lorenzen and the vaunted Kentucky passing attack, Louisville managed to pick off two balls that had a major impact on the outcome. One stat that certainly has drawn some attention from the defensive coaches is that the Wildcats converted 8-of-14 third down opportunities. Obviously, the defense needs to do a better job of keeping teams from moving the chains. Brent Johnson led the way for Louisville in the opener with 10 total tackles.
Considering that Syracuse scored 49 points in the victory over North Carolina, it is no surprise that several offensive players posted tremendous numbers. Tailback Walter Reyes ran the ball 28 times for a career-high 191 yards and three touchdowns. including two scores in overtime. Reyes has now gone over 100 yards seven times in his career, and his 191-yard effort in week one marked the 10th highest single game total in program history. The top receiver for the Orangemen was Johnnie Morant, who established three career highs with seven receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He also returned four kickoffs for 131 yards, giving him 291 all-purpose yards for the game. His quarterback, R.J. Anderson, looked completely comfortable under center. He finished 20-of-33 for 288 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The offense as a unit racked up 518 yards on the day and did not turn the ball over, perhaps the most impressive stat from the game.
Defensively, Syracuse has some room for improvement based on the team's performance last week. The Orange surrendered a total of 505 yards to North Carolina and failed to register a single sack in the tilt. They were particularly weak against the pass, allowing 340 yards on 32-of-45 completions. Syracuse did perform marginally better against the run, yielding 165 yards on 42 carries. Perhaps the most positive stat for Pasqualoni's defense is that it allowed the chains to be moved on only 3-of-14 third down attempts. The unit also came away with two takeaways, one on an interception and the other on a fumble recovery. Rich Scanlon was sensational in the opener for Syracuse, as he posted 15 total tackles. Steve Gregory and Kellen Pruitt both racked up 11 stops apiece.
Coach Bobby Petrino had an impressive debut as his Louisville squad got a big 40-24 revenge win over Kentucky. The Cardinals rushed for 240 yards on 44 carries including 151 yards and two touchdowns by Eric Shelton. Junior quarterback Stefan LeFors was 14-of-23 for 180 yards. The Cardinal defense held Kentucky to only three rushing yards per carry. Petrino’s aggressive style along with the big opening win bodes well for Louisville’s confidence in the wake of the graduation of Dave Ragone. Syracuse survived a triple-overtime 49-47 thriller over North Carolina as Walter Reyes ran for 191 yards on 28 carries. Junior quarterback R.J. Anderson was 20-of-33 for 288 yards as the Orangemen piled up 518 yards of total offense. The Syracuse defense, which returned its entire front four this season, held the Tarheels to just over three yards per carry. However, the secondary was lit up for 340 yards and Carolina also had 505 yards of total offense. Syracuse has to be happy about the play of its offense in the opener, especially the poise displayed by Anderson. If the signal caller can continue to throw the ball with confidence, the Orangemen will be able to put up a good amount of points on a consistent basis. Louisville can score as well, however, and should be able to pull off a narrow victory on the road. The difference in this one could come down to the fact that Louisville has had 12 days to prepare while Syracuse has to recover from a three-overtime battle. Get the scoreboard backup lights ready, this will be a high scoring game and if you find a total, go over.
Projected Score: Louisville 37, Syracuse 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON LOUISVILLE +3 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
RICE (0 - 1) at DUKE (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 6:00 PM
143 RICE
144 DUKE -11
Detailed Analysis
The Rice Owls of the Western Athletic Conference will travel to Durham, North Carolina to take on the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend. The Owls will resume play after their bye week, which was a much needed break since the squad opened the season with a 48-14 loss at Houston in the annual Bayou Bucket game. The 34-point deficit was the largest since 1989 when Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware led the Cougars over the Owls, 64-0. After the matchup with the Blue Devils, the squad will travel to Reliant Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns. The Blue Devils evened their record at 1-1 after their dominating 29-3 victory over the I-AA Western Carolina Catamounts. The three points scored by Western Carolina were the fewest points allowed by a Duke defense since a 41-0 victory over North Carolina on November 18, 1989. The series between the schools began in 1957 with a 7-6 victory for Duke. The Blue Devils won the first four contests, but the Owls snapped that streak in 2001, with a 15-13 decision at Rice Stadium.
Quarterback Greg Henderson supplied the only offense for the Owls in their 48-14 loss to Houston. Henderson finished the contest with 73 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. As a team, the unit produced 206 yards via the run. Backup quarterback Kyle Herm also contributed to the rushing game, racking up 59 yards for the squad. The running game for the Owls was extremely effective despite the lack of performance by last season's leading rusher, Robbie Beck, who totaled only 12 yards on the ground. Both Henderson and Herm were excellent out of the backfield, but when it came to getting the ball to a receiver, they both struggled. Henderson finished the contest completing only 5-of-10 pass attempts for only 28 yards, with one interception. Herm did not fare much better as he completed just 1-of-3 pass attempts with one interception. The lack of a passing hurt the Owl???s chances of any comeback against the Cougars. The offensive strategy was expected, considering Rice led the Western Athletic Conference with 262.8 yards per game on the ground, while at the same time finishing last in the WAC in passing, with 114.4 yards. With the Blue Devils' tough rush defense, the Owls will need to produce more in their passing game to steal a win in Durham.
Whether by air or ground, the Owls' defense was exploited in their season opener. The unit allowed 440 total yards of offense against the Cougars and each Cougar touchdown drive was less then five minutes. The defensive unit allowed five red zone possessions, and the Cougars capitalized on four of those chances. Seven Cougars totaled 194 yards on the ground against Rice. In 2002, Rice finished second in the WAC against the run, but with the loss of eight defensive starters, 2003 probably will have a different outcome. The rushing attack of the Cougars was only half of the problem for the Rice defense. The secondary could not control the abilities of quarterback Kevin Kolb. Kolb torched the Owls secondary, completing 17-of-22 pass attempts for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the poor play on the defensive side of the ball, there were a few players who shined in the 2003 opener. John Syptak, who led the team in tackles in 2002, led the Owls with 11 tackles and one forced fumble against Houston. Linebacker Jeff Vanover also had a solid outing, recording eight tackles in the losing effort.
After being blanked by nationally ranked Virginia in its season-opener Duke came out to prove a point against the Catamounts of Western Carolina. The offensive unit improved its performance in week two of the season, totaling 396 yards in the win. The ground game was sensational, racking up 215 yards. The ground attack was led by Chris Douglas, who in the season-opener became Dukes leader in all-purpose yardage, eclipsing Mike Grayson. Douglas ran for his fifth 100-yard game in a Duke uniform, gaining 106 yards on the ground this past Saturday. The passing game improved dramatically against the Catamounts, as Adam Smith came off the bench to complete 13-of-20 pass attempts for 120 yards and two touchdowns, and another score coming on the ground. Smith, who had started 13 straight games for the Blue Devils, took a backseat to back up quarterback Mike Schneider. Schneider started the game and drove the offense down the field, completing 5-of-9 pass attempts for 61 yards, but was replaced after getting injured. Reggie Love led all Duke receivers with four receptions and 40 yards while grabbing two scores. The rushing attack in 2002 averaged 149.5 yards per game, and seems to be stronger this season as it has accumulated 183.1 yards after its first two games of the 2003 season.
The Blue Devils allowed only 100.5 yards on the ground last season, and although they allowed 204 yards against the Cavaliers, they held the Catamounts to a measly four yards on the ground. The squad eliminated the Catamount rushing attack and staggered their passing game, holding Western Carolina to 181 yards in the contest. Ryan Fowler recorded five tackles, bringing his season total to 17 in the first two contests. Fowler led the Blue Devils with 145 tackles in 2002. Fowler is quickly moving up the tackle charts for Duke, currently ranking sixth all-time with 376 tackles. He needs 138 tackles to break Mike Junkins record of 513. The senior should post good numbers this week, as the Owls are a run oriented team.
What we have here, is a battle of two teams that love old-fashioned football, running left, running right, running up the middle. Rice averaged 247 yards rushing per game last season under coach Ken Hatfield and will attack Duke's small defensive line here. In the opener against Houston, the Owls ran for 206 yards and passed for 36. Not very productive, especially when you realize they lost 48-14! Rice QB Greg Henderson is a good runner (73 yards on 17 carries against Houston). Duke will also run the ball with a strong running game, led by RB Chris Douglas. Douglas had 89 yards in a 27-0 loss to Virginia, and 100 last week in a 29-3 win over Western Carolina. After two games, Duke is averaging 183 yards rushing pg. The Blue Devils have a deep backfield behind QB Adam Smith and should be able to move the ball here. Smith is the likely starter if QB Mike Schneider is unavailable due to injury (concussion). Duke is 8-5 against the spread since the start of last season and the Blue Devils are a perfect 3-0 against Rice in Durham. Lay the points!
Projected Score: Duke 34, Rice 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DUKE -11 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
NOTRE DAME (1 - 0) at MICHIGAN (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
133 NOTRE DAME 44
134 MICHIGAN -9.5
Detailed Analysis
Irish coach Tyrone Willingham's early-season miracles are about to run out. Michigan appears to have the complete package this year: a versatile offense to go with a downright terrific defense. Notre Dame's D isn't bad, but its offense features slow-developing plays and a one-dimensional running quarterback (Carlyle Holiday) who rattles easily. It took a while, but Notre Dame came on late and pulled out a wild win in the opener, a 29-26 comeback victory over Washington State. The Irish didn't run the ball well (3.6 yds per carry) and they turned the ball over 4 times. Note that the Irish pass defense allowed 274 yards passing, and that's a strength for Michigan.
On the other side, Michigan's QB, John Navarre has matured nicely and has a punishing running game and outstanding receivers to direct. The Wolverines have a nice offensive trio of QB John Navarre, WR Braylon Edwards and RB Chris Perry to attack the Irish defense again. Michigan hasn't been tested, with easy wins over Central Michigan and Houston. They're outscoring teams by a 47-5 average, but the Irish have a decent defense to keep this one close. A year ago, Notre Dame was a 10-point dog to Florida State and won the game 34-24, and a 5-point home dog to this Michigan team and won straight up, 25-23. Every time you think the Irish will get pummeled, they come up with an upset or a backdoor cover...BUT NOT THIS YEAR! Once Michigan jumps out front by several scores, how are the Irish ever going to catch up against this defense?
Projected Score: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN -9.5
BOISE ST (1 - 0) at IDAHO (0 - 2)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 7:30 PM
177 BOISE ST -21.5
178 IDAHO
Detailed Analysis
The Broncos of Boise State will play outside the Western Athletic Conference and continue their intrastate rivalry this weekend as they travel to the Kibbie Dome, to battle the Sun Belt Conference Idaho Vandals. This will be the 33rd meeting between the two schools, with the Vandals clinging to a 17-14-1 all-time advantage. The Broncos have closed the gap however, currently holding a four-game win streak in the series. Boise State was impressive in its season-opener, demolishing Idaho State, 62-0. With the win over Idaho State, the Broncos now have the second longest win streak in the nation. The 12-game win streak broke the school's current record, which was posted by the 1979-1980 teams. After the matchup with the Vandals, the Broncos will travel to Oregon State to take on the Beavers. The Vandals have had a more disappointing season to date. The squad has scored a total of five points in its first two games in 2003. In the opening game against Washington State the team fell 25-0. This past week against Eastern Washington, the Vandals fell yet again, this time, 8-5. After the Vandals square off against the Broncos, the team will travel to Washington to take on the Huskies. When these two teams met last season, the Bronco offense was too powerful, racking up 503 yards on just 62 plays from scrimmage. Idaho did post 365 yards in the contest, but the passing game allowed two interceptions. With the 38-21 loss, the Vandals have not won a game in this series since 1998, when they defeated Boise State, 36-35, in overtime.
Full throttle is the best way to describe the offense for the Broncos in their season-opener. Boise State assaulted the Idaho State defense, posting 587 total yards in the contest. The 62-0 win was the second largest margin of victory in school history. QB Ryan Dinwiddie is poised to make his senior season his most memorable, and he got off to a good start against the Bengals. Dinwiddie converted 16-of-30 pass attempts for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Dinwiddie's consistent play has moved him up the career charts at BSU. After the win, Dinwiddie moved into third all-time at Boise State with 5,698 yards. The rushing attack also proved to be too much for Idaho State, as the Broncos rushed for a total of 259 yards on 47 carries.
David Mikell fell one yard shy of 100-yards, but he did hit the end zone twice. Donny Heck and Brad Lau both added touchdown runs for the offensive unit. Despite playing as a backup for three season, Mikell pushed his career total to 1,625 yards on the ground, placing him 10th overall in the school's history. The ball was spread throughout 10 receivers in the season opener. Tony McPherson led the group with three receptions for 71 yards and Jerry Smith and Lawrence Bady both added touchdown receptions. The offense accomplished its job by scoring fast and often, and the defensive unit did its job as well, stopping the Bengals from putting any points on the board. The shutout against Idaho State was the first by a Bronco defense since the 2000 season when they blanked North Texas, 59-0. The Bengal offense was practically non-existent, racking up only 152 yards in the contest. The ground game was completely shut down by the defensive unit as it finished the game with just six yards. The squad also held the passing attack under control, as Idaho State threw for just 146 yards, averaging just 2.6 yards per completion. The unit completely dominated the Bengals, allowing their offensive squad to complete just two of their 18 third down conversion attempts. Last season's leading tackler, Andy Avalos recorded five tackles in the season opener again Idaho State.
The Vandals have struggled terribly on the offensive side of the ball, considering Idaho State has managed to score only a measly five points in its opener against Washington State, the offensive unit was held to only 250 total yards and it was also blanked on the scoreboard. The Vandals fell to I-AA Eastern Washington in their second contest of the season. The 8-5 final score was a devastating and tough blow for the team. The offense put up better numbers against the Eagles, but still came out with the same result. Malfred Shaw, who rushed for 70 yards against Washington State, broke the century mark against the Eagles, gaining 102 yards on 21 carries. The squad could not find a rhythm against the Eagles as the unit was on the field for only 27 minutes. Michael Harrington has completed only 32-of-71 pass attempts for 315 yards in both games. Harrington has thrown three interceptions, but has yet to throw a touchdown pass on the season. Orlando Winston, who is taking over for Josh Jelmberg, has eight receptions and 108 yards in the first two games to pace all receivers.
The Vandals were abused in their first game of the season, allowing 466 yards against Washington State. However, the defense stepped it up a notch against the Eagles. Despite the loss, the defense held its own against Eastern Washington and even though the Eagles could only muster 224 yards and one touchdown against the Vandals, that was enough for the victory. In that contest, the Idaho defense recorded a safety and held the Eagles to only 31 yards on 29 rushing attempts. The 31 yards were a big improvement compared to the 339 yards allowed against the Washington State rushing attack. The unit held Eastern Washington to only 11 first downs and 5-of-17 on third down conversions. In each contest, the secondary has held both opposing offenses under 200 yards through the air. Washington State threw for only 127 yards and Eastern Washington gained only 193 yards.
This game is greatly impacted by the terrible leg injury of Idaho's fullback Keith Greer who is now fighting for his life after complications from surgery. It looks like this story has already influenced Idaho on the field after a "nine inning" baseball score loss to Eastern Washington 8-5. Last week, Idaho could only muster 175 yards of offense and just 31 yards on the ground. WAC champ, Boise State, looks to keep rolling after crushing Idaho State 62-0 last week. Last year's matchup saw Idaho finish with an ATS victory but lost soundly 38-21. Idaho's offense appears to be much different than a year ago. The Broncos' offense should be too much for the Vandals to handle, and with the lack of offense Idaho possesses, the Vandals will have little chance of keeping pace. The boys from Boise should easily keep their title as Spud State Champs with a total whitewash of the state of Idaho.
Projected Score: Boise St 45, Idaho 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BOISE STATE -21
WWTS CURRENTLY HAS THIS GAME AT -20.5
IF 21.5 I RECOMMEND BUYING 1/2 POINT DOWN TO 21
LINE CURRENTLY AT -22 SO NO PLAY!
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 2) at CLEMSON (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 5:00 PM
175 MIDDLE TENN ST
176 CLEMSON -14
Detailed Analysis
The Sun Belt meets the ACC. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are averaging 14.5 points pg after two games while the defense is allowing 24.5 ppg. Last week that defense held Georgia to 29 points in a 29-10 loss (trailing just 10-3 at the half) and got the cover as a 29-point dog. Senior QB Andrico Hines runs the offense, but MTS was one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt against the pass in 2002, allowing 229 yards in the air pg and that could hurt against an aggressive, pass-oriented Clemson offense. The Blue Raiders are 3-13 SU as a dog since 2000, though an impressive 11-5 ATS. Tommy Bowden is in the midst of a big rebuilding project at Clemson with only 11 starters returning from last year’s team which failed to cover seven of its last nine games. games. The Tigers got into the win column last week, but the effort was far from impressive in a 28-17 home win over Div. I-A Furman. That game came on the heels of an embarrassing 30-0 home loss to a severely short-handed Georgia team that was without key players at running back, receiver, guard, nose tackle, and safety. The guy who can make this Clemson offense go is sophomore QB Charlie Whitehurst. He was 19-for-33 for 151 yards against Georgia and has two tall young wideouts in 6’-5” Kevin Youngblood and 6’-4” Derrick Hamilton. I think the lines makers made a small mistake here making Middle Tennesse a t TD dog. MTS will make the short trip into South Carolina believing they can outright win this game and don't be surprised if they do.
Projected Score: Clemson 21, Mid Tenn St 20
OPINION PLAY ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14
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DETAILED WRITEUPS NFL FOOTBALL
MIAMI (0 - 1) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/14/2003 1:00 PM
189 MIAMI -3
190 NY JETS 37
Detailed Analysis
Two obscure runners got plenty of yards on the ground against the New York Jets in the opening loss last week. Even defensive tackle Jason Ferguson had trouble remembering their names. "I don't even know his name -- No. 46. He ran all over us," Ferguson said. That would be Ladell Betts, who combined with Trung Canidate to run for 123 yards as the Redskins beat the Jets 16-13 last Thursday. A bigger challenge awaits Sunday against division rival Miami: containing Ricky Williams. The Jets are eager to come back from their so-so performance against the run to stop one of the league's best backs. "We definitely want to stop the run," Ferguson said. "He's the No. 1 or 2 back in the league, so we want to get on him early and prove that we can stop the run." They struggled against the Redskins in the fourth quarter. On the game-winning drive, Betts had four carries for 23 yards, and quarterback Patrick Ramsey had a decisive 24-yard run that put the Redskins in field-goal range. But compared to last year, the Jets were much improved. In the first six games of 2002, the Jets allowed a 100-yard rusher four times. Against the Dolphins in Week 3, Williams had 151 yards on 24 carries. Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell said he could hardly make adjustments during games. "Last year they sat there with their mouths open like, 'Huh, what?"' Cottrell said. "Playing together has helped." Ferguson said it was difficult at the beginning of last year with so many new defensive starters. "Last year we had trouble with any kind of back, no matter who they were," Ferguson said. "We were so far away last year. Nobody had an answer."
They hope to have answers against Williams, who did not have a breakout game in the Dolphins' stunning 21-20 loss to the Texans last week. In fact, Williams carried the ball just 17 times for 69 yards. A holding penalty on Randy McMichael negated a 48-yard run that would have given the Dolphins the ball on the Houston 2-yard line. Cottrell was surprised Williams did not get the ball more often, and anticipates that will change against the Jets. Williams had less than 20 carries three times last year. "He's such a weapon -- one mistake and he can break a long one," Cottrell said. "When he's running well, you have a problem." Williams is a big, powerful back who also is fast, presenting big problems for a defense. Ferguson said Williams is a better runner now with the Dolphins. He also noticed the Texans hit Williams early and gang tackled him.
Another player who could help inside is veteran tackle Chester McGlockton, who was in on about 15 plays against the Redskins. Cottrell anticipates McGlockton playing 25-30 snaps this week. "You have to stop the run regardless," McGlockton said. "You go and play a team like this who relies so heavily on it, if we go in and shut him down, we've got a chance to get to the quarterback." The Jets know they must have help when tackling Williams. They also realize he has the ability to break a big run even if he is being stopped for a good portion of the game. In the first game against the Jets last year, Williams had a 53-yard touchdown run. "He's the type of guy where you can hold him for a loss, they keep running the same play and all of a sudden he breaks a tackle, the guy in the secondary misses him and it's a touchdown," coach Herman Edwards said. "It takes more than one guy to bring him down." In the second game against the Dolphins last season, the Jets made adjustments and held Williams to 53 yards on 20 carries in a 13-10 victory. Dolphins starter Jay Fielder was out of the game, and the Dolphins struggled with Ray Lucas behind center. The Jets can only hope for the same success against Williams on Sunday. "We're going to try to bust him in his mouth and try to do it the whole game," Ferguson said.
The Dolphins have had too many nightmares in the Meadowlands against the Jets. They've lost big leads. They've lost critical games. Coming off an opening home loss to the Texans, the Dolphins are in a must-win situation. For the Jets, the question is can they win because a loss could put them in position for a possible 0-3 start. Next week, they go to New England. Offensive coordinator Paul Hackett must find a way to open up the offense for quarterback Vinny Testaverde. Watching Testaverde throwing pass after pass short of the first down marker was sickening in the opening game of the season against the Redskins. Halfback Curtis Martin also needs to have a big game to show he's still among the elite backs.
For the Dolphins, this is a game in which they need to rally. Coach Dave Wannstedt brought in veterans such as Junior Seau, Jeff Zgonina, Sammy Knight and Terrell Buckley to create big plays and leadership on the road and for late in the season. But that leadership has to step up now or those December games won't mean much. Miami is just 1-8-1 SU last 10 games against the Jets, and 0-4-1 ATS the last five games at New York. Also, Miami is off an embarrassing 21-20 home loss to Houston as a 14-point favorite. Ricky Williams (69 yards, 17 carries) didn't run wild and QB Jay Fiedler was decent (17-32, 227 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) but not enough to get a win as a big favorite. The locker room was quiet after the defeat, many players in shock, and there's pressure on coach Dave Wannstedt this season, so Miami is not a happy place to practice this week. The Jets are off a poor game as well, losing 16-13 at the Redskins - gaining just 158 total yards! QB Vinny Testaverde was terrible and so was the Jets run defense. New York was poor against the run last season, ranked 17th overall and allowed 4.6 yards per carry (3rd worst in the AFC), and the run ‘D’ looked poor last week, allowing 160 yards to the Redskins (4.7 yards per attempt). Miami RB Ricky Williams may take advantage in a big way. Both teams looked lazy and uninterested in playing last week, but the Dolphins have more talent and should break the "At New York Jinx."
Projected Score: MIA Dolphins 27, NY Jets 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIAMI -3
CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/14/2003 1:00 PM
191 CLEVELAND 41
192 BALTIMORE -2
Detailed Analysis
Last week, the Ravens played one of the top defenses in the NFL and it was an eye opening experience for rookie quarterback Boller (Pres Game of the Week and easy Steeler win last week). The key to the Ravens' success hinges on running back. Lewis has to get the ball in his hands at least 25-30 times a game. With big backs like Lewis, a three- to four-yard carry in the first quarter can become a 15-yard carry in the fourth quarter. They should be more committed to the run on second and third down and get a smattering of runs on first down. Coach Brian Billick will probably show Boller the mistakes he made and set about correcting them. Another way to help Boller would be to run some high percentage play-action passes to get his confidence up. Also, the Ravens must play better defense to avoid being down by so many points. Having to come from so far down initiates the abandoning of the run. I have no doubt that linebacker Ray Lewis will rectify that situation. Note the following:
Don't look for many points here. Cleveland's defense did the job last week, holding the talented Colts' offense to 271 total yards. Cleveland RB William Green (86 yards, 4.1 yds per carry last week) was decent, and QB Kelly Holcomb completed 20-of-29 passes, but threw two interceptions with no TDs, and the Browns lost at home, 9-6. Now they get to face the Ravens' defense -- good luck! Baltimore is off a 34-15 loss at Pittsburgh, where the pass 'D' got ripped by the Steelers strong air attack. The defense was strong against the run, allowing just 3 yards per carry, but this offense is very young and will likely be erratic often under rookie QB Kyle Boller (22-43, 152 yards). Both teams are 0-1 SU/ATS; don't look for a lot of points and take the under.
Projected Score: CLE Browns 17, BAL Ravens 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE UNDER 41
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 9-10 47.6% (-3.60) -$360
Season Record: NFL 5-2 71.4% (+4.70) +$470
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(5) HAWAII +21 CONFIRMED
(3) RUTGERS -6
(2) SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA UNDER 40.5
(2) UAB -10.5
(1) PURDUE PICK'EM ADDED
(1) ARIZONA +11.5 ADDED
(1) LOUISVILLE +3
(1) DUKE -11
(1) MICHIGAN -9.5 ADDED
(1) BOISE STATE -21 Downgraded
*OPINION PLAYS: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14; UTEP +19.5; TEXAS -13.5; MEMPHIS +5
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NFL FOOTBALL:
(1) MIAMI -3
(1) CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE UNDER 41
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DETAILED WRITEUPS NCAA FOOTBALL
HAWAII (1 - 0) at USC (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 4:00 PM
139 HAWAII 59
140 USC -21
Detailed Analysis
Coach June Jones Hawaii Rainbows are not going to be welcome visitors for the Trojans this week. Hawaii's all-everything passer, Timmy Chang, returns, along with an offense that averaged 36 points per game last year. To go with this, Jones has what he says is his best defense ever. The defensive line is strong and it will have to be vs. USC and the secondary is experienced. Recently jones has stated; "this is the game we want most this year," "we will be ready for anything they [USC] will do offensively. Last year this team won at Fresno, beat Cincinnati and lost by five to Alabama. Forget the last time Hawaii lined up against the Trojans, the Rainbow Warriors were decapitated 62-7. That was in 1999, in June Jones’s first game as the Hawaii head coach. Jones would love to beat Southern Cal but lets not kid ourselves here, his team is not good enough for an outright win, and since our favorite team is the spread...that's all we should be worried about. Meanwhile, Hawaii goes into the game with 3 of its starting 4 WRs hurting. As for injuries, Soph slot receiver Nate Ilaoa (coach June Jones says the best receiver) is out with a partially-torn ACL. Jr. SB Chad Owens (ankle) and leading WR Jeremiah Cockerhan (slightly sprained knee) have been upgraded to probable and are now expected to play. Those three combined for 14 recs. For 272 yds in the team’s season-opening 40-17 victory over Appalachian State. Because of their talent, Jones has decided to go with 3 redshirt or true freshmen at the team’s 3 open OL positions. Jones says the three all have NFL potential.
Given that USC’s record as a non-conference home favorite of -12 or more is an anemic 1-12 ATS, the Rainbows may have a chance to sneak in under the generous spread. The Trojans failed to cover a big number last week against visiting BYU, jumping out to a 21-0 lead then letting up a bit before winning 35-18 as 20 point chalk. This week they are again favored by 3 touchdowns. Will they cover? They do have two advantages not present last Saturday. One, the Cougars had a tough game under their collective belts (the Georgia Tech win) while Hawaii has only played Appalachian St. And two, the Rainbows 1# quarterback, Tommy Chang, missed that contest with a one-game suspension. Additionally, this will be the second straight foe the Trojans will have faced that owns a one dimensional offense...all aerial. USC signal caller Matt Leinart showed last week that he's talented BUT somewhat inexperienced. He went 19 of 34 for 235 yards and 3 td's vs. BYU, BUT he was also intercepted 3 times! Trojans handled BYU’s passing game like they knew what was coming and really, they did, because their offensive coordinator built the BYU system. USC has lost starting CB and PR Kevin Arbet for the rest of the season with a foot fracture. Arbet missed all of LY with the same injury. He will likely be replaced by juco and former BC starter Will Pool (1 int. last week). The Trojans have two other backup Cbs with starting experience. Trojans’ blue-chip true frosh starting S Darnell Bing, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the season opener, aggravated the injury last week, has missed much of practice this week to rest it, and is questionable. Hawaii, led by Timmy Chang, will be a tougher test, and the ‘Bows have had an extra week to prepare. Hawaii's advantage here...they're 8-1 ATS as non-conference dogs. USC will score a bunch, but Hawaii has the offense to hang around the number. Rested Rainbows are always a challenge.
Projected Score: USC 38, Hawaii 24
PLAY 5* UNITS ON HAWAII +21
RUTGERS (1 - 1) at ARMY (0 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
125 RUTGERS -6.5
126 ARMY
Detailed Analysis
This game perhaps will win the award as one of the least watchable games of the year...but does that mean I can't bet on it? The Rutgers Scarlet Knights try to double last season's win total on Saturday when they head to West Point to take on the Army Black Knights in non-conference action from Michie Stadium. The Scarlet Knights have already equaled last year's win total of one, with an opening-day victory over Buffalo, 24-10. The win snapped the Scarlet Knights' nine-game losing streak dating back to last season. However, the victory was short lived as Rutgers was defeated by Michigan State, 44-28 last Saturday. With a 1-1 mark on the season, the Scarlet Knights shouldn't have trouble building on their 1-11 mark from a year ago. As for Army, it also finished last season 1-11 and did not get off to a good start this year either. In their season opener against Connecticut, the Black Knights were manhandled, 48-21. It was the third consecutive loss for Army dating back to a season ago. The Black Knights will be playing a school-record 13 games this season, which includes a tough stretch of Conference USA contests.
Rutgers gained only 330 yards of total offense against Michigan State, but was still able to produce 21 points. The offense moved the ball through the air effectively, gaining 266 yards, but struggled on the ground with just 64 yards. Ryan Hart had a respectable day, completing 14-of-31 pass attempts for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He has now completed 56.5 percent of his passes for nearly 500 yards and three touchdowns through the first two games of the season. Harts' favorite target, Shawn Tucker, hauled in five balls for 118 yards and a score against Michigan State. Tucker had only three receptions for 44 yards in the season opener against Buffalo. Brian Leonard led the rushing attack with 31 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Justin Hairston didn't fare much better either, gaining only 22 yards on 13 totes. Hairston had 88 yards and a score last week versus Buffalo. Overall, the Rutgers' offense was last in the nation last season so scoring more than 21 points in the first two games of the season is definitely a promising sign. Defensively, Rutgers was torched for 485 yards by MSU, including 351 yards via the pass. However, the defense did manage to record three sacks while also picking off two passes. Jarvis Johnson led the unit with 10 tackles in addition to registering a sack. He now has 14 stops on the year. Bryan Durango made seven tackles, while David Harley came up with five. Brandon Haw accounted for four tackles and also picked off a pass which he returned 61 yards for a touchdown. Willie Beckford had a solid all-around game with four tackles, a sack and an interceptions. Nate Jones made only four tackles after recording nine in the season opener against Buffalo. Alfre Peterson and Raheem Orr each registered a sack in the losing cause. Orr leads the team on the season with 2.5 sacks. The Scarlet Knights had trouble slowing down Michigan State's passing game, but did a decent job overall.
Army could only muster 244 total yards of offense in its setback to UConn. The offense gained only 44 yards on the ground, while throwing for a respectable 200 yards. The Black Knights' biggest setback in the game came on third downs, where they converted just 8-of-22 opportunities. Play caller Zac Dahman completed 17-of-29 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns, but was also picked off once. He was replaced by Reggie Nevels, who completed just 9-of-21 pass attempts for 57 yards. On the receiving end was Aaron Alexander, who caught five passes for 68 yards and a score. As for the running attack, it was led by Carlton Jones and his 48 yards on 15 carries. Seth Gulsby was a nice change of pace with eight carries for 32 yards. The offense was aided by the special teams, which saw Ray Stith return a 63-yard punt for a score. Overall, the Army offense stumbled a bit, not scoring in the first half, but did appear more organized in the second. On the defensive side of the ball, Army permitted 481 total yards, including 317 through the air. The unit did a respectable job on third downs, holding UConn to just 3-of-11 on its conversion attempts, but failed to record a sack. The defense also came up with only two turnovers, both on interceptions. Delente Brewer led the charge with seven tackles and one interception. He picked off two passes last season to lead the team, displaying his ability to blanket opposing pass catchers. Jonathan Lewis finished second on the team with six tackles, while Brian Hill made five and half stops. Chuck Wilke came up with the team's second interception to go with his two stops. The bottom line is the Army defense played poorly and things will only get harder as the season goes on.
So why have I chosen this game? Consider this, Rutgers is returning an experienced squad this year and they have been able to move the ball consistently in their previous two outings (see above), putting up 24 points at Michigan State last week. They have a good young QB in sophomore Ryan Hart. Hart played well in a 24-10 victory over Buffalo, and they ran for 181 yards rushing, which means the offense should be able to move the ball against a pitiful Army 'D'. On the other side of the ball Army was manhandled in a CUSA game at Cincinnati. They only managed 44 yards on 37 carries and looked totally out of sync. To put icing on the cake, Army got bad news this week with the loss of QB Reggie Nevels, and Army's starting FS, playmaker Lucius Weaver, is suspended for this contest. With the loss of Weaver, Rutgers well balanced offense which has been especially effective over the top, will be able to take advantage of Weaver's absence. This years Rutgers squad is a much better team improved team (albiet still terrible when compaired with the rest of the league), while Army will be hard pressed to match last years 1 win total. Rutgers beat Army 44-0 last season and are 2-0 last 2 ATS. All signs point to another easy win. This one could get ugly...DD Road cover.
Projected Score: Rutgers 36, Army 21
PLAY 3* UNITS ON RUTGERS -6
S CAROLINA (2 - 0) at GEORGIA (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
127 S CAROLINA 40.5
128 GEORGIA -14
Detailed Analysis
Quarterback David Greene is having trouble getting Georgia's offense into the end zone. The eighth-ranked Bulldogs need him to step up his performance Saturday as they attempt to end their touchdown drought against rival South Carolina in the Southeastern Conference opener for both teams. Georgia has driven inside the 20-yard line 10 times in the first two games this season, but has just four touchdowns. "It's been frustrating," Greene said. "It's not like we've been terrible. We just haven't had a whole lot of execution." Greene completed 73 percent of his passes (33-of-45) for 470 yards in victories over Clemson and Middle Tennessee State, but he's passed for only one touchdown. "I've been decent," he said. "Not terrible, but not great either. Obviously, if you're not scoring touchdowns, you're not getting the job done as a quarterback." Greene threw for 267 yards in a sloppy 29-10 victory over Middle Tennessee on Saturday. Wide receiver Fred Gibson pulled his hamstring in the game and may miss Saturday's game against the Gamecocks. "You never know how quickly a guy can recover from that," Richt said of his top receiver.
South Carolina has won two of the last three in the series. Only Florida, which has taken three straight from the Bulldogs, has fared as well in recent years. In 2000, the Gamecocks were an overwhelming underdog at home. Yet, Bulldog star Quincy Carter threw five interceptions and South Carolina stunned the Bulldogs 21-10. The next season at Georgia, the Gamecocks again pulled off the surprise, winning 14-9 for only their sixth victory in 29 games in Athens. Last year's contest also came down to the wire, with Georgia pulling out a 13-7 win in a game full of missed opportunities for South Carolina. Andrew Pinnock fumbled twice near Georgia's goal line, the last coming in the game's final minutes. The Bulldogs' lone touchdown came on an incredible end zone interception and return by defender David Pollack.
"We've not even scored a touchdown against them since I've been here," Georgia coach Mark Richt said. That's right coach, Georgia (2-0) has gone two straight years without an offensive touchdown against the 25th-ranked Gamecocks (2-0). At least the Bulldogs don't have to contend with Charlie Strong, the former Gamecocks defensive coordinator who moved to Florida this season. South Carolina has shifted from the unorthodox 3-5-3 alignment that Strong favored to a more conventional 4-3 under new coordinator Chris Cosh. "They are very different scheme-wise," Richt said. "They look very much like our defensive scheme. The blitzes are identical. The coverage is identical."
Despite its fast start, South Carolina coach Lou Holtz doesn't want his players to become overconfident heading into Saturday's showdown. "We're not laboring under any misconceptions that we think we're an excellent football team," Holtz said Monday. The Gamecocks showed promise by upsetting then-No. 15 Virginia 31-7 Saturday, a win that resulted in their rise to No. 25 in this week's rankings. Quarterback Dondrial Pinkins connected with Troy Williamson on a record-setting 99-yard touchdown play to set the tone for South Carolina.
This is the 12th time that Georgia and South Carolina meet to open an SEC season. The Bulldogs have won seven of those meetings. Georgia leads the overall series 40-13-2, including 23-6 in Athens and 18-5 in Sanford Stadium. He may look it, but, Lou Holtz certainly is not dead yet. After laying an egg in the first week, "Sweet" Lou rallied the troops and stomped an injured Virginia in Charlottesville, 31-7. This week will also require every bit of Lou's guile as the Gamecocks walk in between the Hedges. Let the "poor mouthing" begin! Georgia had a very pedestrian effort last week against Middle Tennessee State, 29-10. However, the Bulldogs did lose WR Fred Gibson to a hamstring and the latest report says he will not play here. This injury could impact what has become a traditionally low scoring affair. The last five years, this game has gone UNDER the total five consecutive times. Neither team has averaged 15 points in the past 5 years in this contest. Defense will be the story again this year as South Carolina's new 4-3 setup has been very strong so far, only allowing one touchdown to this point. Georgia has not been a slouch either, shutting out Clemson in the first week, 30-0. Georgia is 12-2 SU, but only 3-8-2 ATS at home in the past three years under the helm of Mark Richt. Despite their wonderful performance last week, South Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and 1-3 ATS against Georgia in the last 4 games. As they say in the South, "Tradition is all we have left!" Tradition (and defense) is what to expect in this clash.
Projected Score: Georgia 21, So Carolina 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA UNDER 40.5
TROY ST (0 - 2) at UAB (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 7:00 PM
181 TROY ST
182 UAB -10.5
Detailed Analysis
Troy State (0-2) is on a brutal road trip, having gotten blasted at Kansas State and at Minnesota. The Trojans young offensive line features 3 new starters. In their previous two outings against K-State and Minnesota the Trojans were outscored by a 12 - 89 point margin. Now they travel to UAB, so you have to wonder how beat up and tired this traveling road show is. Alabama-Birmingham has an experienced offense led by sophomore QB Darrell Hackney and junior WR Roddy White. UAB topped Baylor 24-19 in the opener, then lost a tough 17-12 game at home to Conference USA rival Southern Miss last week. But the Blazers beat themselves last week against Southern Mississippi. They had 4 TO's in the contest and were able to move the ball well most of the day...so I don't think they'll have much trouble going downfield against Troy St. UAB has a prolific offense with playmakers at the skill positions. The Blazers star QB is a little knicked up, but he's had a few extra days to heal (last played on Thursday night) and is expected to start on Saturday.Finally, UAB's new defensive coordinator is Wayne Bolt, who ran Troy State's defense for the last 12 seasons. UAB's 'D' is much improved because of him this fall and even with Bolt, UAB beat a much better Troy team 27-26 last season. Blazers are an experienced team motivated by a home loss going against a tired inexperienced team. This game has the makings of a blowout!
Projected Score: UAB 37, Troy State 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON UAB -10.5
LOUISVILLE (1 - 0) at SYRACUSE (1 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 1:30 PM
105 LOUISVILLE
106 SYRACUSE -3
Detailed Analysis
The Louisville Cardinals of Conference USA travel to the Carrier Dome for Saturday's matchup with the Syracuse Orangemen of the Big East. Louisville should be well rested heading into this tilt, as it has not played since opening its season with an impressive 40-24 victory over intrastate rival Kentucky on August 31st. After this tilt, the Cardinals will play a pair of non-conference home games against UTEP and Temple before beginning their league schedule on October 4th against South Florida. Bobby Petrino is in the first year of his second term with the Louisville program, this time as HC instead of offensive coordinator. As for Syracuse, it enters this game riding a wave of emotion after a thrilling 49-47 victory over North Carolina in three overtimes. That victory, which took place on the road, will now be followed by three straight non-league games at home before the start of Big East play. Unlike Petrino who is in his first year as head coach as mentioned, the Orangemen's Paul Pasqualoni is in his 12th season as leader of the program. Syracuse will attempt to remain perfect against Louisville on Saturday, as the Orangemen have won all three previous matchups with the Cardinals.
Coach Petrino served as Louisville's offensive coordinator during the 1998 season when the team led the nation in scoring and total offense. During that campaign, Petrino's unit set program records for scoring, scoring average, touchdowns, passing touchdowns and total yards. Considering that the Cardinals posted 40 points against a solid Kentucky team in this season's opener, it is apparent that the offense is once again in good hands. Louisville racked up an impressive total of 420 total yards in that contest and came away with points in each of its four trips to the red zone. The running attack accounted for 240 yards on 44 attempts, and Eric Shelton led the way with 151 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Lionel Gates proved to be a force as well, as he ran for 75 yards and a touchdown on only 13 carries. While quarterback Stefan LeFors did not post huge numbers, his 14-of-23 effort for 180 yards and one score provided solid compliment to the effective ground attack. Louisville turned the ball over just once in the clash and allowed only one sack, solid numbers that clearly contributed to the win. Broderick Clark was the team's top receiver in week one, as he finished with six grabs for 94 yards.
While Petrino is known as an offensive coach, he is certainly not one to neglect his defense. Although the Cardinals did surrender 24 points to Kentucky, they managed to hold the Wildcats scoreless in the fourth quarter to preserve the victory. Considering that Kentucky is one of the nation's more explosive offensive teams, Louisville should feel good about its defensive performance overall. The Cardinals were tremendous against the run, allowing only 108 yards on 36 attempts. Even against Jared Lorenzen and the vaunted Kentucky passing attack, Louisville managed to pick off two balls that had a major impact on the outcome. One stat that certainly has drawn some attention from the defensive coaches is that the Wildcats converted 8-of-14 third down opportunities. Obviously, the defense needs to do a better job of keeping teams from moving the chains. Brent Johnson led the way for Louisville in the opener with 10 total tackles.
Considering that Syracuse scored 49 points in the victory over North Carolina, it is no surprise that several offensive players posted tremendous numbers. Tailback Walter Reyes ran the ball 28 times for a career-high 191 yards and three touchdowns. including two scores in overtime. Reyes has now gone over 100 yards seven times in his career, and his 191-yard effort in week one marked the 10th highest single game total in program history. The top receiver for the Orangemen was Johnnie Morant, who established three career highs with seven receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He also returned four kickoffs for 131 yards, giving him 291 all-purpose yards for the game. His quarterback, R.J. Anderson, looked completely comfortable under center. He finished 20-of-33 for 288 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The offense as a unit racked up 518 yards on the day and did not turn the ball over, perhaps the most impressive stat from the game.
Defensively, Syracuse has some room for improvement based on the team's performance last week. The Orange surrendered a total of 505 yards to North Carolina and failed to register a single sack in the tilt. They were particularly weak against the pass, allowing 340 yards on 32-of-45 completions. Syracuse did perform marginally better against the run, yielding 165 yards on 42 carries. Perhaps the most positive stat for Pasqualoni's defense is that it allowed the chains to be moved on only 3-of-14 third down attempts. The unit also came away with two takeaways, one on an interception and the other on a fumble recovery. Rich Scanlon was sensational in the opener for Syracuse, as he posted 15 total tackles. Steve Gregory and Kellen Pruitt both racked up 11 stops apiece.
Coach Bobby Petrino had an impressive debut as his Louisville squad got a big 40-24 revenge win over Kentucky. The Cardinals rushed for 240 yards on 44 carries including 151 yards and two touchdowns by Eric Shelton. Junior quarterback Stefan LeFors was 14-of-23 for 180 yards. The Cardinal defense held Kentucky to only three rushing yards per carry. Petrino’s aggressive style along with the big opening win bodes well for Louisville’s confidence in the wake of the graduation of Dave Ragone. Syracuse survived a triple-overtime 49-47 thriller over North Carolina as Walter Reyes ran for 191 yards on 28 carries. Junior quarterback R.J. Anderson was 20-of-33 for 288 yards as the Orangemen piled up 518 yards of total offense. The Syracuse defense, which returned its entire front four this season, held the Tarheels to just over three yards per carry. However, the secondary was lit up for 340 yards and Carolina also had 505 yards of total offense. Syracuse has to be happy about the play of its offense in the opener, especially the poise displayed by Anderson. If the signal caller can continue to throw the ball with confidence, the Orangemen will be able to put up a good amount of points on a consistent basis. Louisville can score as well, however, and should be able to pull off a narrow victory on the road. The difference in this one could come down to the fact that Louisville has had 12 days to prepare while Syracuse has to recover from a three-overtime battle. Get the scoreboard backup lights ready, this will be a high scoring game and if you find a total, go over.
Projected Score: Louisville 37, Syracuse 31
PLAY 1* UNIT ON LOUISVILLE +3 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
RICE (0 - 1) at DUKE (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 6:00 PM
143 RICE
144 DUKE -11
Detailed Analysis
The Rice Owls of the Western Athletic Conference will travel to Durham, North Carolina to take on the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend. The Owls will resume play after their bye week, which was a much needed break since the squad opened the season with a 48-14 loss at Houston in the annual Bayou Bucket game. The 34-point deficit was the largest since 1989 when Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware led the Cougars over the Owls, 64-0. After the matchup with the Blue Devils, the squad will travel to Reliant Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns. The Blue Devils evened their record at 1-1 after their dominating 29-3 victory over the I-AA Western Carolina Catamounts. The three points scored by Western Carolina were the fewest points allowed by a Duke defense since a 41-0 victory over North Carolina on November 18, 1989. The series between the schools began in 1957 with a 7-6 victory for Duke. The Blue Devils won the first four contests, but the Owls snapped that streak in 2001, with a 15-13 decision at Rice Stadium.
Quarterback Greg Henderson supplied the only offense for the Owls in their 48-14 loss to Houston. Henderson finished the contest with 73 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. As a team, the unit produced 206 yards via the run. Backup quarterback Kyle Herm also contributed to the rushing game, racking up 59 yards for the squad. The running game for the Owls was extremely effective despite the lack of performance by last season's leading rusher, Robbie Beck, who totaled only 12 yards on the ground. Both Henderson and Herm were excellent out of the backfield, but when it came to getting the ball to a receiver, they both struggled. Henderson finished the contest completing only 5-of-10 pass attempts for only 28 yards, with one interception. Herm did not fare much better as he completed just 1-of-3 pass attempts with one interception. The lack of a passing hurt the Owl???s chances of any comeback against the Cougars. The offensive strategy was expected, considering Rice led the Western Athletic Conference with 262.8 yards per game on the ground, while at the same time finishing last in the WAC in passing, with 114.4 yards. With the Blue Devils' tough rush defense, the Owls will need to produce more in their passing game to steal a win in Durham.
Whether by air or ground, the Owls' defense was exploited in their season opener. The unit allowed 440 total yards of offense against the Cougars and each Cougar touchdown drive was less then five minutes. The defensive unit allowed five red zone possessions, and the Cougars capitalized on four of those chances. Seven Cougars totaled 194 yards on the ground against Rice. In 2002, Rice finished second in the WAC against the run, but with the loss of eight defensive starters, 2003 probably will have a different outcome. The rushing attack of the Cougars was only half of the problem for the Rice defense. The secondary could not control the abilities of quarterback Kevin Kolb. Kolb torched the Owls secondary, completing 17-of-22 pass attempts for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the poor play on the defensive side of the ball, there were a few players who shined in the 2003 opener. John Syptak, who led the team in tackles in 2002, led the Owls with 11 tackles and one forced fumble against Houston. Linebacker Jeff Vanover also had a solid outing, recording eight tackles in the losing effort.
After being blanked by nationally ranked Virginia in its season-opener Duke came out to prove a point against the Catamounts of Western Carolina. The offensive unit improved its performance in week two of the season, totaling 396 yards in the win. The ground game was sensational, racking up 215 yards. The ground attack was led by Chris Douglas, who in the season-opener became Dukes leader in all-purpose yardage, eclipsing Mike Grayson. Douglas ran for his fifth 100-yard game in a Duke uniform, gaining 106 yards on the ground this past Saturday. The passing game improved dramatically against the Catamounts, as Adam Smith came off the bench to complete 13-of-20 pass attempts for 120 yards and two touchdowns, and another score coming on the ground. Smith, who had started 13 straight games for the Blue Devils, took a backseat to back up quarterback Mike Schneider. Schneider started the game and drove the offense down the field, completing 5-of-9 pass attempts for 61 yards, but was replaced after getting injured. Reggie Love led all Duke receivers with four receptions and 40 yards while grabbing two scores. The rushing attack in 2002 averaged 149.5 yards per game, and seems to be stronger this season as it has accumulated 183.1 yards after its first two games of the 2003 season.
The Blue Devils allowed only 100.5 yards on the ground last season, and although they allowed 204 yards against the Cavaliers, they held the Catamounts to a measly four yards on the ground. The squad eliminated the Catamount rushing attack and staggered their passing game, holding Western Carolina to 181 yards in the contest. Ryan Fowler recorded five tackles, bringing his season total to 17 in the first two contests. Fowler led the Blue Devils with 145 tackles in 2002. Fowler is quickly moving up the tackle charts for Duke, currently ranking sixth all-time with 376 tackles. He needs 138 tackles to break Mike Junkins record of 513. The senior should post good numbers this week, as the Owls are a run oriented team.
What we have here, is a battle of two teams that love old-fashioned football, running left, running right, running up the middle. Rice averaged 247 yards rushing per game last season under coach Ken Hatfield and will attack Duke's small defensive line here. In the opener against Houston, the Owls ran for 206 yards and passed for 36. Not very productive, especially when you realize they lost 48-14! Rice QB Greg Henderson is a good runner (73 yards on 17 carries against Houston). Duke will also run the ball with a strong running game, led by RB Chris Douglas. Douglas had 89 yards in a 27-0 loss to Virginia, and 100 last week in a 29-3 win over Western Carolina. After two games, Duke is averaging 183 yards rushing pg. The Blue Devils have a deep backfield behind QB Adam Smith and should be able to move the ball here. Smith is the likely starter if QB Mike Schneider is unavailable due to injury (concussion). Duke is 8-5 against the spread since the start of last season and the Blue Devils are a perfect 3-0 against Rice in Durham. Lay the points!
Projected Score: Duke 34, Rice 17
PLAY 1* UNIT ON DUKE -11 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
NOTRE DAME (1 - 0) at MICHIGAN (2 - 0)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 3:30 PM
133 NOTRE DAME 44
134 MICHIGAN -9.5
Detailed Analysis
Irish coach Tyrone Willingham's early-season miracles are about to run out. Michigan appears to have the complete package this year: a versatile offense to go with a downright terrific defense. Notre Dame's D isn't bad, but its offense features slow-developing plays and a one-dimensional running quarterback (Carlyle Holiday) who rattles easily. It took a while, but Notre Dame came on late and pulled out a wild win in the opener, a 29-26 comeback victory over Washington State. The Irish didn't run the ball well (3.6 yds per carry) and they turned the ball over 4 times. Note that the Irish pass defense allowed 274 yards passing, and that's a strength for Michigan.
On the other side, Michigan's QB, John Navarre has matured nicely and has a punishing running game and outstanding receivers to direct. The Wolverines have a nice offensive trio of QB John Navarre, WR Braylon Edwards and RB Chris Perry to attack the Irish defense again. Michigan hasn't been tested, with easy wins over Central Michigan and Houston. They're outscoring teams by a 47-5 average, but the Irish have a decent defense to keep this one close. A year ago, Notre Dame was a 10-point dog to Florida State and won the game 34-24, and a 5-point home dog to this Michigan team and won straight up, 25-23. Every time you think the Irish will get pummeled, they come up with an upset or a backdoor cover...BUT NOT THIS YEAR! Once Michigan jumps out front by several scores, how are the Irish ever going to catch up against this defense?
Projected Score: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MICHIGAN -9.5
BOISE ST (1 - 0) at IDAHO (0 - 2)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 7:30 PM
177 BOISE ST -21.5
178 IDAHO
Detailed Analysis
The Broncos of Boise State will play outside the Western Athletic Conference and continue their intrastate rivalry this weekend as they travel to the Kibbie Dome, to battle the Sun Belt Conference Idaho Vandals. This will be the 33rd meeting between the two schools, with the Vandals clinging to a 17-14-1 all-time advantage. The Broncos have closed the gap however, currently holding a four-game win streak in the series. Boise State was impressive in its season-opener, demolishing Idaho State, 62-0. With the win over Idaho State, the Broncos now have the second longest win streak in the nation. The 12-game win streak broke the school's current record, which was posted by the 1979-1980 teams. After the matchup with the Vandals, the Broncos will travel to Oregon State to take on the Beavers. The Vandals have had a more disappointing season to date. The squad has scored a total of five points in its first two games in 2003. In the opening game against Washington State the team fell 25-0. This past week against Eastern Washington, the Vandals fell yet again, this time, 8-5. After the Vandals square off against the Broncos, the team will travel to Washington to take on the Huskies. When these two teams met last season, the Bronco offense was too powerful, racking up 503 yards on just 62 plays from scrimmage. Idaho did post 365 yards in the contest, but the passing game allowed two interceptions. With the 38-21 loss, the Vandals have not won a game in this series since 1998, when they defeated Boise State, 36-35, in overtime.
Full throttle is the best way to describe the offense for the Broncos in their season-opener. Boise State assaulted the Idaho State defense, posting 587 total yards in the contest. The 62-0 win was the second largest margin of victory in school history. QB Ryan Dinwiddie is poised to make his senior season his most memorable, and he got off to a good start against the Bengals. Dinwiddie converted 16-of-30 pass attempts for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Dinwiddie's consistent play has moved him up the career charts at BSU. After the win, Dinwiddie moved into third all-time at Boise State with 5,698 yards. The rushing attack also proved to be too much for Idaho State, as the Broncos rushed for a total of 259 yards on 47 carries.
David Mikell fell one yard shy of 100-yards, but he did hit the end zone twice. Donny Heck and Brad Lau both added touchdown runs for the offensive unit. Despite playing as a backup for three season, Mikell pushed his career total to 1,625 yards on the ground, placing him 10th overall in the school's history. The ball was spread throughout 10 receivers in the season opener. Tony McPherson led the group with three receptions for 71 yards and Jerry Smith and Lawrence Bady both added touchdown receptions. The offense accomplished its job by scoring fast and often, and the defensive unit did its job as well, stopping the Bengals from putting any points on the board. The shutout against Idaho State was the first by a Bronco defense since the 2000 season when they blanked North Texas, 59-0. The Bengal offense was practically non-existent, racking up only 152 yards in the contest. The ground game was completely shut down by the defensive unit as it finished the game with just six yards. The squad also held the passing attack under control, as Idaho State threw for just 146 yards, averaging just 2.6 yards per completion. The unit completely dominated the Bengals, allowing their offensive squad to complete just two of their 18 third down conversion attempts. Last season's leading tackler, Andy Avalos recorded five tackles in the season opener again Idaho State.
The Vandals have struggled terribly on the offensive side of the ball, considering Idaho State has managed to score only a measly five points in its opener against Washington State, the offensive unit was held to only 250 total yards and it was also blanked on the scoreboard. The Vandals fell to I-AA Eastern Washington in their second contest of the season. The 8-5 final score was a devastating and tough blow for the team. The offense put up better numbers against the Eagles, but still came out with the same result. Malfred Shaw, who rushed for 70 yards against Washington State, broke the century mark against the Eagles, gaining 102 yards on 21 carries. The squad could not find a rhythm against the Eagles as the unit was on the field for only 27 minutes. Michael Harrington has completed only 32-of-71 pass attempts for 315 yards in both games. Harrington has thrown three interceptions, but has yet to throw a touchdown pass on the season. Orlando Winston, who is taking over for Josh Jelmberg, has eight receptions and 108 yards in the first two games to pace all receivers.
The Vandals were abused in their first game of the season, allowing 466 yards against Washington State. However, the defense stepped it up a notch against the Eagles. Despite the loss, the defense held its own against Eastern Washington and even though the Eagles could only muster 224 yards and one touchdown against the Vandals, that was enough for the victory. In that contest, the Idaho defense recorded a safety and held the Eagles to only 31 yards on 29 rushing attempts. The 31 yards were a big improvement compared to the 339 yards allowed against the Washington State rushing attack. The unit held Eastern Washington to only 11 first downs and 5-of-17 on third down conversions. In each contest, the secondary has held both opposing offenses under 200 yards through the air. Washington State threw for only 127 yards and Eastern Washington gained only 193 yards.
This game is greatly impacted by the terrible leg injury of Idaho's fullback Keith Greer who is now fighting for his life after complications from surgery. It looks like this story has already influenced Idaho on the field after a "nine inning" baseball score loss to Eastern Washington 8-5. Last week, Idaho could only muster 175 yards of offense and just 31 yards on the ground. WAC champ, Boise State, looks to keep rolling after crushing Idaho State 62-0 last week. Last year's matchup saw Idaho finish with an ATS victory but lost soundly 38-21. Idaho's offense appears to be much different than a year ago. The Broncos' offense should be too much for the Vandals to handle, and with the lack of offense Idaho possesses, the Vandals will have little chance of keeping pace. The boys from Boise should easily keep their title as Spud State Champs with a total whitewash of the state of Idaho.
Projected Score: Boise St 45, Idaho 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON BOISE STATE -21
WWTS CURRENTLY HAS THIS GAME AT -20.5
IF 21.5 I RECOMMEND BUYING 1/2 POINT DOWN TO 21
LINE CURRENTLY AT -22 SO NO PLAY!
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 2) at CLEMSON (1 - 1)
Week 3 Saturday, 9/13/2003 5:00 PM
175 MIDDLE TENN ST
176 CLEMSON -14
Detailed Analysis
The Sun Belt meets the ACC. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are averaging 14.5 points pg after two games while the defense is allowing 24.5 ppg. Last week that defense held Georgia to 29 points in a 29-10 loss (trailing just 10-3 at the half) and got the cover as a 29-point dog. Senior QB Andrico Hines runs the offense, but MTS was one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt against the pass in 2002, allowing 229 yards in the air pg and that could hurt against an aggressive, pass-oriented Clemson offense. The Blue Raiders are 3-13 SU as a dog since 2000, though an impressive 11-5 ATS. Tommy Bowden is in the midst of a big rebuilding project at Clemson with only 11 starters returning from last year’s team which failed to cover seven of its last nine games. games. The Tigers got into the win column last week, but the effort was far from impressive in a 28-17 home win over Div. I-A Furman. That game came on the heels of an embarrassing 30-0 home loss to a severely short-handed Georgia team that was without key players at running back, receiver, guard, nose tackle, and safety. The guy who can make this Clemson offense go is sophomore QB Charlie Whitehurst. He was 19-for-33 for 151 yards against Georgia and has two tall young wideouts in 6’-5” Kevin Youngblood and 6’-4” Derrick Hamilton. I think the lines makers made a small mistake here making Middle Tennesse a t TD dog. MTS will make the short trip into South Carolina believing they can outright win this game and don't be surprised if they do.
Projected Score: Clemson 21, Mid Tenn St 20
OPINION PLAY ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +14
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DETAILED WRITEUPS NFL FOOTBALL
MIAMI (0 - 1) at NY JETS (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/14/2003 1:00 PM
189 MIAMI -3
190 NY JETS 37
Detailed Analysis
Two obscure runners got plenty of yards on the ground against the New York Jets in the opening loss last week. Even defensive tackle Jason Ferguson had trouble remembering their names. "I don't even know his name -- No. 46. He ran all over us," Ferguson said. That would be Ladell Betts, who combined with Trung Canidate to run for 123 yards as the Redskins beat the Jets 16-13 last Thursday. A bigger challenge awaits Sunday against division rival Miami: containing Ricky Williams. The Jets are eager to come back from their so-so performance against the run to stop one of the league's best backs. "We definitely want to stop the run," Ferguson said. "He's the No. 1 or 2 back in the league, so we want to get on him early and prove that we can stop the run." They struggled against the Redskins in the fourth quarter. On the game-winning drive, Betts had four carries for 23 yards, and quarterback Patrick Ramsey had a decisive 24-yard run that put the Redskins in field-goal range. But compared to last year, the Jets were much improved. In the first six games of 2002, the Jets allowed a 100-yard rusher four times. Against the Dolphins in Week 3, Williams had 151 yards on 24 carries. Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell said he could hardly make adjustments during games. "Last year they sat there with their mouths open like, 'Huh, what?"' Cottrell said. "Playing together has helped." Ferguson said it was difficult at the beginning of last year with so many new defensive starters. "Last year we had trouble with any kind of back, no matter who they were," Ferguson said. "We were so far away last year. Nobody had an answer."
They hope to have answers against Williams, who did not have a breakout game in the Dolphins' stunning 21-20 loss to the Texans last week. In fact, Williams carried the ball just 17 times for 69 yards. A holding penalty on Randy McMichael negated a 48-yard run that would have given the Dolphins the ball on the Houston 2-yard line. Cottrell was surprised Williams did not get the ball more often, and anticipates that will change against the Jets. Williams had less than 20 carries three times last year. "He's such a weapon -- one mistake and he can break a long one," Cottrell said. "When he's running well, you have a problem." Williams is a big, powerful back who also is fast, presenting big problems for a defense. Ferguson said Williams is a better runner now with the Dolphins. He also noticed the Texans hit Williams early and gang tackled him.
Another player who could help inside is veteran tackle Chester McGlockton, who was in on about 15 plays against the Redskins. Cottrell anticipates McGlockton playing 25-30 snaps this week. "You have to stop the run regardless," McGlockton said. "You go and play a team like this who relies so heavily on it, if we go in and shut him down, we've got a chance to get to the quarterback." The Jets know they must have help when tackling Williams. They also realize he has the ability to break a big run even if he is being stopped for a good portion of the game. In the first game against the Jets last year, Williams had a 53-yard touchdown run. "He's the type of guy where you can hold him for a loss, they keep running the same play and all of a sudden he breaks a tackle, the guy in the secondary misses him and it's a touchdown," coach Herman Edwards said. "It takes more than one guy to bring him down." In the second game against the Dolphins last season, the Jets made adjustments and held Williams to 53 yards on 20 carries in a 13-10 victory. Dolphins starter Jay Fielder was out of the game, and the Dolphins struggled with Ray Lucas behind center. The Jets can only hope for the same success against Williams on Sunday. "We're going to try to bust him in his mouth and try to do it the whole game," Ferguson said.
The Dolphins have had too many nightmares in the Meadowlands against the Jets. They've lost big leads. They've lost critical games. Coming off an opening home loss to the Texans, the Dolphins are in a must-win situation. For the Jets, the question is can they win because a loss could put them in position for a possible 0-3 start. Next week, they go to New England. Offensive coordinator Paul Hackett must find a way to open up the offense for quarterback Vinny Testaverde. Watching Testaverde throwing pass after pass short of the first down marker was sickening in the opening game of the season against the Redskins. Halfback Curtis Martin also needs to have a big game to show he's still among the elite backs.
For the Dolphins, this is a game in which they need to rally. Coach Dave Wannstedt brought in veterans such as Junior Seau, Jeff Zgonina, Sammy Knight and Terrell Buckley to create big plays and leadership on the road and for late in the season. But that leadership has to step up now or those December games won't mean much. Miami is just 1-8-1 SU last 10 games against the Jets, and 0-4-1 ATS the last five games at New York. Also, Miami is off an embarrassing 21-20 home loss to Houston as a 14-point favorite. Ricky Williams (69 yards, 17 carries) didn't run wild and QB Jay Fiedler was decent (17-32, 227 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) but not enough to get a win as a big favorite. The locker room was quiet after the defeat, many players in shock, and there's pressure on coach Dave Wannstedt this season, so Miami is not a happy place to practice this week. The Jets are off a poor game as well, losing 16-13 at the Redskins - gaining just 158 total yards! QB Vinny Testaverde was terrible and so was the Jets run defense. New York was poor against the run last season, ranked 17th overall and allowed 4.6 yards per carry (3rd worst in the AFC), and the run ‘D’ looked poor last week, allowing 160 yards to the Redskins (4.7 yards per attempt). Miami RB Ricky Williams may take advantage in a big way. Both teams looked lazy and uninterested in playing last week, but the Dolphins have more talent and should break the "At New York Jinx."
Projected Score: MIA Dolphins 27, NY Jets 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIAMI -3
CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1)
Week 2 Sunday, 9/14/2003 1:00 PM
191 CLEVELAND 41
192 BALTIMORE -2
Detailed Analysis
Last week, the Ravens played one of the top defenses in the NFL and it was an eye opening experience for rookie quarterback Boller (Pres Game of the Week and easy Steeler win last week). The key to the Ravens' success hinges on running back. Lewis has to get the ball in his hands at least 25-30 times a game. With big backs like Lewis, a three- to four-yard carry in the first quarter can become a 15-yard carry in the fourth quarter. They should be more committed to the run on second and third down and get a smattering of runs on first down. Coach Brian Billick will probably show Boller the mistakes he made and set about correcting them. Another way to help Boller would be to run some high percentage play-action passes to get his confidence up. Also, the Ravens must play better defense to avoid being down by so many points. Having to come from so far down initiates the abandoning of the run. I have no doubt that linebacker Ray Lewis will rectify that situation. Note the following:
Don't look for many points here. Cleveland's defense did the job last week, holding the talented Colts' offense to 271 total yards. Cleveland RB William Green (86 yards, 4.1 yds per carry last week) was decent, and QB Kelly Holcomb completed 20-of-29 passes, but threw two interceptions with no TDs, and the Browns lost at home, 9-6. Now they get to face the Ravens' defense -- good luck! Baltimore is off a 34-15 loss at Pittsburgh, where the pass 'D' got ripped by the Steelers strong air attack. The defense was strong against the run, allowing just 3 yards per carry, but this offense is very young and will likely be erratic often under rookie QB Kyle Boller (22-43, 152 yards). Both teams are 0-1 SU/ATS; don't look for a lot of points and take the under.
Projected Score: CLE Browns 17, BAL Ravens 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CLEVELAND/BALTIMORE UNDER 41
